The Arms and The Stacks: April 16th

After yesterday’s huge 14 game slate, we’re back down to a 7 game main slate.  With fewer player options, rankings of players become a bit more clear cut.

The one game to monitor precipitation for is Bal@Tex.

The Arms

There were a plethora of options yesterday at pitchers, but today there’s a clear top option.  Here’s today’s pitchers’ K%s from 2015.

4-16 k%s

Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer possess by far the best strikeout ability of any pitcher on this slate.  Not only did he have the highest K% last year, but we’re projecting his strikeouts for today to be the highest by a fairly wide margin.  Scherzer is facing the Phillies who have the lowest team run total of the day, at Over 3 +145 / Under 3- 170.  Scherzer is also a heavy -173 favorite.  On individual Vegas level, his strikeout prop is currently sitting at over 7.5 -140.

Sherzer has gotten off to a slow start this year, facing a tough Atlanta team, but his match up today is much more favorable against Philadelphia.  The Phillies’ team batting was in the bottom 3 in wOBA last year and the bottom 10 in K% last year.  Scherzer has by far  the best K% and wOBA comparison on the slate, factoring in today’s Phillies lineup.

max scherzer

On DraftKings, where two pitcher are required, second options are a bit more muddled.

Johnny Cueto is a decent option in a vacum, but it will be difficult to pay up for both him and Scherzer, which leaves us looking for cheaper options.

Andrew Cashner projects as our second highest scoring pitcher for the slate.  Coming at a cheap price tag of $7,700 he’s my favorite options to combine with Scherzer.

Shelby Miller (actually a very slight moneyline favorite against Cashner) and Scott Kazmir are pivots off of Cashner.

For tournaments specifically I like Cueto, Miller, Kazmir, and Aaron Nola as lower owned options with some upside.

The Stacks

Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles @ Rangers game has the highest over/under on the slate by 1.5 runs.  Texas has the highest team run total, but is only projected to score roughly .5 runs more than Baltimore.  Both teams are very solid stacking options.  Baltimore exploded last night for 11 runs, so I’m a bit more inclined to fade them some in tournaments, assuming high ownership.  Both pitchers in this game come with price tags below $6,600, which is a decent indication of the offensive production expected in this game.

EDIT:  Watch the weather for this game.

Houston Astros

While it pains me to feature the Astros again, after they’ve burned me two days in a row, they do have the second highest team run total of the day.  They have a more difficult match up than they’ve had recently, facing off against Justin Verlander, but I love stacking them in tournaments.  After two awfully disappointing performances, where they came with high ownership, the ownership levels today should be low.  Most Astros players come at cheaper price tags than they’ve had recently too, allowing them to more easily be stacked.

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