The Affects of Temperature in MLB DFS

As has been discussed in the past, weather plays a larger role in Daily Fantasy Baseball than in any other DFS sport.  Luckily one of the biggest weather factors for MLB DFS is something we’re all familiar with, temperature.  Temperature reduces air density, resulting in hit baseballs traveling further.

To see just how big of a benefit higher temperatures have for batters I compiled every game log from 2012-2015, including temperatures, from baseball-reference.  I also removed games played in a covered environment (domes).

Here I charted Average Team Home Runs by Temperature:

Avg Team Home Runs per Game by Temp

The effect of temperature on power hitting is obvious.  In this data there was a continuous rise in home runs as temperature rose, until temperatures greater than 95 degrees.  The reason for this drop is almost certainly due to variance in a small sample size.  I’d expect the home runs to continually climb as temperatures rise over a larger sample.

Between the lowest temperature group (under 46 degrees) and the highest production group (91-95 degrees) we saw a 73.4% increase in the number of home runs hit per team each game.  Even the difference between the 71-75 degree group and the 91-95 degree group is very significant, with a 17% increase in home runs.  I don’t know about you, but I like my batters to be more likely to hit home runs.

With home runs being such an important part of success in daily fantasy baseball, it is important to take advantage of this information.  Factors like these can be taken advantage of when they are not factored into the pricing of MLB players.  For example when the Mets, who play their home games under terrible DFS ballpark condtions, travel to Arlington to play the Rangers you can expect them to be under priced for that game environment.

The Benefits of temperature also extend to team Runs per Game:

avg team runs per game by temp

The largest percent increase here is smaller, with 86-90 degree games see a 27.6% increase from games played in 46-50 degree weather.  Although a smaller percent increase, it’s still worth noting hotter temperatures lead to more overall offensive fantasy production.

With the knowledge that higher temperatures brings more production for batters, don’t forget this means the opposite for pitchers.  They’re the ones getting all these dingers hit against them.

So the next time you make your MLB DFS lineups, make sure to take a look at the temperatures, and draft some batters in hot games.

(Daily Fantasy Lineup Optimizers Can Also Give You a Leg Up On The Competition.  Learn More Here)

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